Latest · Edition #002
The El Niño window opens — dry now, flood-prone by the short rains
18 July 2026
RADA SAT SVC · Uasin Gishu / Eldoret
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For information only — not concrete advice. Always seek professional advice and follow the guidelines of the proper authorities and institutions.
🌾 UASIN GISHU
1 · A systemic dry spell across the maize highlands
Right now the RaDa satellite read shows most of the Uasin Gishu farms we monitor drier than their own multi-year norm — 18 of the 35 with enough clear-sky history sit at least one standard deviation below their 2016–2025 June–July baseline (average −2.9σ). Machakos moves the same way (all 6 measured farms drier), while ASAL Makueni sits right at its own seasonal normal. When the wet-regime counties dry together and the dry-country baseline doesn't move, that is a seasonal driver — the El Niño pre-season dry phase — not a problem with any single shamba.
Sources
RaDa satellite (NDMI co-occurrence, v0, confidence 0.65)
NOAA CPC
KMD
📡 WHAT RADA MEASURED
2 · "Is it my field, or the season?"
Across the network, 32 of 68 measurable farms (47%) are drier than their own norm this fortnight; in the highlands cluster it is 31 of 51 (61%), with every county trending dry. That co-occurrence is the whole point of a satellite network — a single dry farm could be many things, but dozens drying together, on the exact schedule the seasonal forecast predicted, is the season. A farmer opening the RaDa App in Uasin Gishu today sees it in plain words: most farms near you show the same — this is the season, not your field.
Sources
RaDa satellite co-occurrence (2016–2025 baseline)
IRI ENSO
🌧️ REGIONAL OUTLOOK
3 · The short-rains flip
CPC's El Niño Advisory is strengthening — roughly a 99% chance it persists through the October–December short rains, 81% odds of a very strong event, with the Niño-3.4 index at +1.7 °C and rising. El Niño has historically intensified Kenya's OND short rains (1997, 2023). The read for the highlands: dry now, but prepare for a wet, flood- and waterlogging-prone short rains — clear drainage on the lower terraces and watch disease pressure as humidity climbs. RaDa's flood and waterlogging watch runs daily through the season.
📡 Live county read · auto-updated
Generated from RaDa's satellite network — confidence shown per claim.